The Bank held, exactly as expected. Here is why it matters.
- Simon Bilodeau
- Jun 10
- 2 min read
Dear Reader,
This morning the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% (mortgage prime at 4.45%), the fifth hold in a row and exactly what the market expected. No surprise.
On Monday I published the full picture of why the economy has given the Bank no room to move: the recession we are already in, the savings squeeze holding it up, and why the bond market, not the Bank, is the real story to watch. The whole thesis is here:
Here is the short version of what today's decision means for you.
The Bank is stuck. Inflation climbed back to 2.8% in April on energy costs, and the May jobs report came in strong, with unemployment falling to 6.6%. A central bank does not cut into rising prices and a recovering job market, so the cuts many people are still waiting for are not coming. If anything, the risk leans the other way.
And here is the part most people miss. The rate the Bank just froze is for variable rate. Fixed rates are set in the bond market, and bond yields have been drifting higher on these same pressures. "The Bank held" does not mean your renewal rate is safe.
So if you are renewing in the next year, or sitting in a variable rate wondering what to do, now is the time to talk. For most people, locking a fixed term buys certainty in a world where rates are more likely to rise than fall. Variable still fits some situations, and if you simply want the lowest rate available today, that is fair too. There is no single right answer, only the right one for your plan, and my job is to make sure you know the trade-off you are making.
Book a time and we will look at your actual numbers: https://calendly.com/refinancebc/30-min-mortgage-updates
Sincerely,
Simon Bilodeau and Gina Lopez
604-828-9864
Simon Bilodeau is a mortgage broker, financial writer, and co-founder of RefinanceBC. He specializes in translating economic trends into clear mortgage strategies for BC homeowners. Often featured on Radio-Canada and CBC, Simon is known for honest, data-driven advice delivered in plain language. He works alongside his wife Gina, forming a bilingual team serving clients across the province.
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